We’re getting into the nitty-gritty of fantasy football, with playoff spots about to be decided and first-place crowns in the process of being solidified. In the meantime, let’s decipher the latest quartet of QBs provided by Parlay4 this week.
Justin Herbert vs. MIA
Patrick Mahomes at DEN
Tua Tagovailoa at LAC
Russell Wilson vs. KC
Justin Herbert Over/Under 20 Fantasy Pts
Sometimes reading between the betting lines on any given week can help paint a clearer picture in predicting fantasy performance. For this week’s slate, it’s pretty evident that the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Chargers is going to be very lively.
Just look at the over/under of 52.5 attached to this particular contest — the highest such mark of Week 14 — and that’s a strong sign that the offense will be coming in bunches for this matchup.
As a result, it would be wise to deploy at least one of the showdown’s two signal-callers for a significant outing. In this case, we’ll again roll with Justin Herbert.
The third-year QB out of Oregon is coming off a game that saw him supply his second-most passing yards (340) in a game this season, albeit in defeat, and perhaps most notably, attempted 45 or more passes for the fourth time in 2022.
Increased usage is always a desired trait of any player on fantasy football rosters for obvious reasons and this looks like another such opportunity to capture Herbert in a big effort if the Chargers are about to enter a shootout opposite a fellow high-scoring bunch like the Fins.
Remember, also, that no team in the NFL has had more pass attempts than Los Angeles. Even if this encounter doesn’t meet expectations in terms of points on the scoreboard, the Chargers will still take it to the air plenty. Herbert is fifth in the league in yards per game (278.3) and tied for seventh in TDs (20) and should be on a path toward satisfying owners this week.
Pick: OVER 20 Points
Herbert goes toe-to-toe with someone that’s actually ahead of him in both passing yards per game and touchdowns, Tua Tagovailoa. The Miami quarterback can firmly be considered in the race for the Most Valuable Player award as well.
However, the preference in opting for Herbert stems more from projected game script. The Dolphins are favored by 3.5, and rightfully so given that they are the better football team, but if they’re winning most of the way through, that means the ball isn’t being placed in Tagovailoa’s hands as much, as they’d be running more. Tagovailoa barely throws more than 30 times per game on average.
As for the other two field generals that can be chosen, there is definitely a little more uncertainty there, being featured in a Chiefs-Broncos tilt. Denver’s offense has looked like an abomination for the most part is on a historical pace for fewest points scored each week in more than 20 years, making the prospects of trusting Russell Wilson obsolete in fantasy football.
Patrick Mahomes, of course, can always be trusted no matter the matchup but the MVP frontrunner carries the highest over/under fantasy total of them all. Thus, it’s harder to tab him for an over when he’s about to enter a likely-lopsided matchup, like he is this week against the Broncos.